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OUR ECONOMIST: DAN NORTH

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Employment Report: U.S. Escapes Omicron, but Canada does not

Let’s take a closer look at the January employment report. As previously noted, the economy added an incredible 467,000 jobs in January, far above estimates of 150,000. Recently, the White House along with several analysts, suggested the number could have even been negative because of Omicron. In addition, the February 2nd ADP report showed a shocking drop of 301,000 jobs. Something feels amiss here.

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Employment Report "It’s Like Déjà Vu All Over Again"

There was an American baseball player named Yogi Berra who was famous for his witty statements which were either self-contradictory or redundant. One of them was “It’s like déjà vu all over again.” That’s the case with the December employment report compared to the November report in many ways.

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U.S. Employment Report Full of Contradictions

The November employment report was very strong—but full of maddening contradictions. However, the mixed headline numbers can be explained if we get down into the weeds of the report a little bit.

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Economic Update: Good News in General, Concerns on Inflation

There is a lot of good news. The high-frequency indicators are showing a rebound in Q4. The October employment report was very strong, and very good news. But we still have a long way to go in the labor market, and the supply/demand imbalance is clearly driving wage inflation which is showing up in many measures

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US: The Economy Slows, Inflation Grows

The economy took a breather in the third quarter, as GDP slowed to a 2.0% q/q annualized rate, significantly weaker than already soft consensus estimates of 2.7%.

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US: Mixed Consumption, Pressure on Wages and Inflation

The retail sales report for August 2021 blew past expectations of falling -0.8% and instead rose +0.7% to a 15% y/y increase.

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US Employment Report: A Major Disappointment

The employment report for August 2021 was a dramatic disappointment. The economy created only 235k jobs vs. expectations of 720k. It was the worst performance of the entire year to date.

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US Economic Update: Mixed News, Good Outlook

Overall, the US economy is still in very good shape – despite the mixed news. We expect strong growth for the rest of this year into next year. However, will the combination of recent inflation, the Delta variant, and slowing vaccinations knock the forecast down some?

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Economic Update: Employment tepid, rest of economy epic

In his latest blog post, Dan North, Chief Economist of Euler Hermes Americas, explains why job growth in May 2021 was disappointing, while other economic indicators are looking up.

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"Base Effect" Distorting Recent Data

The economy is in very good condition and we expect an unusually strong GDP growth rate of 6.3% for all of 2020, the fastest in over three decades.

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Economic Update: US Personal Income and Consumption

In his latest blog post, Dan North, Chief Economist of Euler Hermes, Americas, looks at the US consumer income and consumption records that were set at the end of April 2021.

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2021 Economic Outlook

The U.S. economy is poised for the strongest growth in over 30 years as we enter the spring of 2021. Read what Dan North has to say about spending power, the labor, housing, and manufacturing markets.

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U.S. Blistering Hot Employment Report

This morning’s employment report for March shows that the breakout expected for this year is indeed underway. This will be a very good year with GDP growth of a rousing 5.3%.

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Economic Update: Consumers Roaring into Spring 2021

In his latest blog post, Dan North, Chief Economist of Euler Hermes, Americas, looks at data indicating the U.S. consumer is starting to awake after a long winter’s sleep.

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Bankruptcies and B2B Payment Issues

Ask an Economist: What’s Next for the Economy?

During our recent webinar, Dan North talked through his outlook for 2021, the current vaccine rollout, and developments in consumption, housing, manufacturing, and employment.

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Dan North, Chief Economist Euler Hermes North America

About Dan North

Since 1996, Dan North has been with Euler Hermes, the world’s oldest and largest credit insurance company. As the company’s chief economist for North America, he uses macroeconomic and quantitative analyses to help manage Euler Hermes’ risk portfolio of more than $250 billion in annual trade transactions within the region.

As one of the leading U.S. economists, Dan North has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business News, ABC News Now, France 24, and Bloomberg Radio and Television. He has been quoted by USA Today, Barron’s, Bloomberg Business Week, The Washington Post, Paris Le Monde, and The Wall Street Journal. After having predicted the 2008/2009 recession and its implications accurately, Dan North was ranked 4th on Bloomberg’s list of the 65 top economic forecasters in 2010.

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