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France: For a fistful of dollars

France: For a fistful of dollars

The French export performance surprised on the upside in January 2019 despite growth concerns in Germany and China. Compared to a year ago, exports rose by +EUR2.5bn. It evidences that exports will again contribute visibly to economic growth in 2019 (+EUR14bn export gains are expected, after +18bn in 2018). In 2018, the strong export performance towards the U.S. (+4.4bn) and China (+2bn) added +0.2pp and +0.1pp to GDP growth, respectively. This story continued in January 2019, with +EUR0.8bn additional exports to each of these two markets. Transport equipment (mainly aeronautics) and chemicals (mainly pharmaceutical goods and cosmetics) are the main beneficiaries of this momen­tum. Meanwhile, France’s five top EU export destinations (Germany, Spain, Italy, Belgium and the UK) generated only +EUR0.5bn export gains in January, reflecting the impact of the low growth momentum in core EU economies. Overall, the French external sector’s improving performance is summarized by a narrowing current account deficit (-EUR6bn expected in 2019, after -EUR17bn in 2018).

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