Data for September confirms that the uptick in Chinese imports from the U.S. registered in August was only temporary and was mainly driven by the anticipation of new U.S. import tariffs in September. Overall, Chinese imports from the U.S. fell by -13% y/y in September while U.S. imports from China fell by -19% y/y. The export losses YTD amount to -EUR50bn for China and to -EUR13bn for the U.S. Europe continues to benefit from the substitution effect, with additional U.S. imports of +EUR35bn from the EU YTD (compared to +EUR18bn last year) while momentum for Chinese imports from the EU is weaker (additional +EUR8bn YTD vs. +EUR10bn last year). While positive for Europe, this is not enough to make up for the overall lower trade flows between the U.S., China and the EU which amount to close to -EUR20bn YTD. Overall we expect global trade of goods and services to fall by -1.7% in 2019 in value terms as the USD has remained strong and adjustments in high levels of inventories have started to put downside pressures on prices. Global trade growth in volume terms should remain at its lowest since 2009 (+1.5%).
