Flash estimates indicate that real GDP growth in the group of 11 EU members in the CEE region lost momentum in Q3, as expected, coming in at around +3.4% (all figures in seasonally adjusted, y/y terms), down from 3.8% in Q2. Hungary remained the frontrunner in Q3 with +4.8% (+5.2% in Q2), followed by Poland with +4% (+4.1% in Q2). These two countries have so far shown resilience to the troubles in the European automotive sector. In contrast, output growth came in more moderately in Romania (+3.2% in Q3 after +4.3%), Czechia (+2.5% after +2.8%) and Slovakia (+1.8% after +2.4%). Meanwhile, Q3 growth remained relatively robust in Bulgaria (+3.7% after +3.8%) and Lithuania (+3.6% after +4%) but weakened further in Latvia (+1.8% after +2.5). The Q3 estimates are in line with our average full-year 2019 growth forecast of +3.6% for the 11 EU members in CEE (after +4.3% in 2018). For 2020 we forecast regional growth to slow to below +3% due to a delayed impact from the Eurozone cycle.
