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  • Agrifood: Skeleton in the Closet
Agrifood: Skeleton in the Closet

Agrifood: Skeleton in the Closet

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EU energy prices
EU energy prices

The (energy) price of war for European households

The invasion of Ukraine will propel energy prices even higher.

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EU energy imports from Russia
EU energy imports from Russia

Can europe do without Russian gas?

Imports from Russia account for close to 36% of total EU gas supply, with Hungary, Slovakia and Czechia the most reliant.

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Russia-Ukraine crisis: Conflict escalation

De-escalation depends on three channels of transmission: energy, finance and trade.

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sector inflation risks
sector inflation risks

Who’s afraid of inflation? A corporate view

If commodity prices, wages or interest rates rise more than expected, some sectors are particularly at risk of a liquidity and profitability squeeze.

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Euler Hermes Global Trade Report 2021
Euler Hermes Global Trade Report 2021

Global Trade Report – Battling out of supply-chain disruptions

When it comes to inputs from China, Europe is on the weak side of the tug-of-war against the US.

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EU energy transition
EU energy transition

Jostle the colossal fossil: A path to the energy sector transition

The EU faces an implementation gap of six years in cutting greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector by 2030.

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US retail: A not so Black Friday for consumers
US retail: A not so Black Friday for consumers

US retail: a not so black Friday for consumers

American consumers hunting for Black Friday bargains won’t find much in 2021 as supply remains tight, inventory low and discounts will apply to goods already more expensive.

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Supply-chain disruption and sector profitability in the US and Europe
Supply-chain disruption and sector profitability in the US and Europe

The big squeeze: supply disruptions pressure manufacturing margins in the US and Europe

Companies in Europe and the US could face a profit squeeze from Q4 2021 onwards as sustained supply-chain disruptions slow the manufacturing recovery.

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Energy prices
Energy prices

Energy prices in Europe: (a costly) winter is coming

Pent-up demand, tight supply, green policy and bad timing are the recipe for skyrocketing energy prices, which could take three to six months to cool down.

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Ecommerce and food retail in Europe
Ecommerce and food retail in Europe

European food retailers: The bitter digital aftertaste of the Covid-19 legacy

The Covid-19 crisis has fast-forwarded Europe’s e-commerce transition, especially in food retail. But we estimate that every percentage of grocery sales moving online threatens EUR13.6bn in sales and up to EUR1.9bn in profits.

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European export performance
European export performance

Export performance in Europe: a sink or swim game

European exporters, especially France, have lost significant market share over the past two decades as China emerged as a global exporter for manufactured goods.

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European fragile SMEs
European fragile SMEs

European SMEs: 7-15% at risk of insolvency in the next four years

While state support softened the blow of the Covid-19 shock, we find that 7%, 13% and 15% of SMEs in Germany, France and the UK are still at risk of insolvency in the next four years.

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Working Capital Requirements in 2021
Working Capital Requirements in 2021

Liquidity matters: Corporates may need half a trillion of additional working capital requirement financing in 2021

Large companies will face a record increase in WCR in a context of a strong demand rebound triggered by the grand reopening, alongside severe shortages in inputs, labor and final goods.

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SPACs
SPACs

SPACs: Healthy normalization ahead

The SPAC party isn’t over yet, but don’t wait up for another phase of record high offerings as seen in 2020 and Q1 2021 — at least in the US.

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Semiconductor manufacturing in Europe
Semiconductor manufacturing in Europe

Semiconductors realpolitik : A reality check for Europe

Europe should play the long game, placing chips where they matter the most.

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