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Turkey: Hard landing on the horizon

Turkey: Hard landing on the horizon

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Unwrapping corporate commodity dependencies
Unwrapping corporate commodity dependencies

Russian dolls: unwrapping corporate (commodity) dependencies

A further +50% to 70% rise in non-energy commodity prices could actually wipe out all profits in six out of the nine sectors under analysis.

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global economic outlook
global economic outlook

Economic Outlook: Energy, trade and financial shockwaves

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought back significant headwinds to the global economic recovery and raised wider geopolitical risks.

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Euler Hermes Global economic outlook 2022
Euler Hermes Global economic outlook 2022

Economic outlook: Don’t look up

Global growth should remain robust but uneven, with rising divergence between advanced and emerging market economies.

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Social Risk Index 2021
Social Risk Index 2021

Social Risk Index: Leave the door open for development

Advanced Economies are generally less vulnerable to systemic social risk than Emerging Markets, and the gap between the two has widened during the pandemic.

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Covid-19 and the middle-income trap
Covid-19 and the middle-income trap

The middle-income trap: inequality across countries after Covid-19

In 2020, Covid-19 narrowed the prosperity gap between rich and poor countries as the former were at first the most affected. But over the medium and long run, its consequences could hit emerging markets harder.

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Working Capital Requirements in 2021
Working Capital Requirements in 2021

Liquidity matters: Corporates may need half a trillion of additional working capital requirement financing in 2021

Large companies will face a record increase in WCR in a context of a strong demand rebound triggered by the grand reopening, alongside severe shortages in inputs, labor and final goods.

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Fossil fuel subsidies
Fossil fuel subsidies

Abolishing fuel subsidies in a green and just transition

Abolishing fossil fuel subsidies and directing the funds to renewable energy seems like an easy win for the climate. But getting rid of them comes with steep costs for consumers, particularly the poorest households.

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Drivers of growth: Property and casualty insurance
Drivers of growth: Property and casualty insurance

Drivers of growth: Property and casualty insurance

Have other explanatory variables already replaced GDP as the decisive factor for insurance market growth?

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Taper tantrum and Emerging Markets
Taper tantrum and Emerging Markets

Taper Tantrum in 2021-22: Beware of the TUCKANS

We find 7 Emerging Markets are particularly vulnerable to an eventual tapering of monetary policy by the US Fed.

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The great Covid-19 race
The great Covid-19 race

Race to the post Covid-19 recovery: 7 obstacles to overcome

The pace of vaccination campaigns will drive a multi-speed recovery, keeping divergence high.

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Commodity prices after Covid-19
Commodity prices after Covid-19

Commodities: higher demand, supply bottlenecks, but no speculation (yet)

Since the lows of May 2020, commodity prices have increased to record highs.

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Digital-enabling countries proved more resilient to the Covid-19 economic shock
Digital-enabling countries proved more resilient to the Covid-19 economic shock

Digital-enabling countries proved more resilient to the Covid-19 economic shock

Our estimates show that an additional point in a country’s 2020 EDI score translated to +0.25pp GDP growth in Q3 2020 y/y.

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Big oil: At risk of becoming fossil firms?
Big oil: At risk of becoming fossil firms?

Big oil: At risk of becoming fossil firms?

After a year of low oil prices and low demand, the hit to profitability will continue in 2021 and 2022.

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vaccine economics
vaccine economics

2021-2022: Vaccine economics

The Covid-19 vaccine will supercharge global growth in 2021, but short-term headwinds, and a complete recovery only by 2022, will create transition risks.

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Best economic wishes for 2021
Best economic wishes for 2021

'Dear Santa': Our economists' wish list for 2021

As 2020 draws to a close and we release our updated forecasts, our economists were caught day dreaming of a world where their boldest wishes would come true.

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