The View November-December 2018

The View November-December 2018

Economic research delivers the latest issue of The View, our monthly publication aggregating featured stories and regional updates, meant to cover angled regional topics and cast a new light on the latest economic news.

In this report from Economic Research Allianz – Euler Hermes:

Household debt: the end of post-crisis restraint
Russia: Weathering a US storm
Economic update: North America, Western Europe, Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe, Middle East, Africa

Authors

Global trade in 2021

Global trade in 2021

Global Trade: Ship me if you can!

Global trade has bounced back stronger than expected so far in 2021, driven by input restocking and shipping constraints rather than supply-demand dynamics.

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Brexiting in times of Covid-19

Brexiting in times of Covid-19

Brexiting in times of Covid-19

The Covid-19 crisis provides some leeway for policy support to absorb the negative impact from Brexit, but we expect UK GDP to remain -2% below pre-crisis levels at end-2022.

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Covid-19 and global supply chains

Covid-19 and global supply chains

Global Supply Chain Survey - In search of post-Covid-19 resilience

We surveyed 1,181 companies across five countries and six sectors to gauge their experiences with disruption, and their plans to make supply chains more resilient.

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Brexit EU export losses

Brexit EU export losses

A hard Brexit could cost the EU EUR33bn in annual exports

Germany, the Netherlands and France are most exposed.

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Living on with a Covid-19 hum

A stop-and-go approach until the return to normal in 2022.

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Allianz Global Wealth Report 2020

The prosperity gap between rich and poor countries has widened again.

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France, Germany, Italy: Good fiscal stimulus, bad trade deficits?

Out of Europe’s major economies, France could experience the largest leakage from its fiscal stimulus.

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[VIDEO] - What does Covid-19 mean for global trade?

Georges Dib, Economist at Euler Hermes, explains.

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EU-Vietnam FTA: EUR3.7bn of additional trade per year

The top EU sectors that will benefit the most are agrifood, energy and machinery.

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Coronavirus outbreak: USD26bn weekly in trade spillovers

We have revised down our global trade growth forecast for 2020 by -0.5pp to +1.3%.

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Coronavirus outbreak: A new trade barrier

Potential weekly losses of exports of goods and services to China could amount to USD26bn, with Hong Kong, the U.S., Japan, South Korea and Germany the most exposed economies.

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Global trade to grow at its slowest pace in a decade and no hope for sizable improvement

Higher uncertainty and higher global tariffs are taking a toll on trade: In 2019, the volume of global trade of goods and services should grow at its slowest pace in a decade (+1.5%). As a result, exporters are likely to see USD420bn in losses this year, according to Euler Hermes’ latest Global Trade report: “Trade Wars: May the Trade Force be with you in 2020 and beyond”.

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Trade Wars: May the Trade Force be with you in 2020 and beyond

A superficial “mini-deal” between the U.S. and China, a slowdown in trade in services and a busy political year in 2020 leave no hope for sizable improvement in global trade growth.

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A 2020 semiconductor slump will send shockwaves across the global electronics industry

A second consecutive year of falling revenue and an uncertain business environment will exacerbate risks for the wider electronics industry.

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U.S.-China mini-deal: trade policy volatility is here to stay

The so-called “mini-deal” between the U.S. and China is not a game-changer for the global economy.

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