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  • What if the U.S. were to declare a trade war on European cars?
What if the U.S. were to declare a trade war on European cars?

What if the U.S. were to declare a trade war on European cars?

Authors
Unwrapping corporate commodity dependencies
Unwrapping corporate commodity dependencies

Russian dolls: unwrapping corporate (commodity) dependencies

A further +50% to 70% rise in non-energy commodity prices could actually wipe out all profits in six out of the nine sectors under analysis.

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global economic outlook
global economic outlook

Economic Outlook: Energy, trade and financial shockwaves

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought back significant headwinds to the global economic recovery and raised wider geopolitical risks.

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Russia-Ukraine crisis: Conflict escalation

De-escalation depends on three channels of transmission: energy, finance and trade.

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Wealth share of the middle class
Wealth share of the middle class

Is the wealth middle class shrinking?

Only three countries have seen the wealth share of the middle class improve since the 2008 financial crisis.

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sector inflation risks
sector inflation risks

Who’s afraid of inflation? A corporate view

If commodity prices, wages or interest rates rise more than expected, some sectors are particularly at risk of a liquidity and profitability squeeze.

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US Fed a fata morgana hiking cycle
US Fed a fata morgana hiking cycle

US fed: a fata morgana hiking cycle?

The main market risk might not come from the Fed falling behind the curve, but from investors being positioned too far ahead of the curve.

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Inflation and wage-price loop
Inflation and wage-price loop

Frying pan to fire: Will inflation spark a wage-price spiral in 2022?

Labor market developments play a key role in maintaining or amplifying the inflationary momentum.

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Euler Hermes Global economic outlook 2022
Euler Hermes Global economic outlook 2022

Economic outlook: Don’t look up

Global growth should remain robust but uneven, with rising divergence between advanced and emerging market economies.

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Infrastructure spending in Europe and the US
Infrastructure spending in Europe and the US

Public infrastructure investment: enough bang for the buck?

The recent scaling up public infrastructure investment has become an essential element of the fiscal stimulus during the recovery phase of the pandemic and promises to reverse the secular decline of capital spending.

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Social Risk Index 2021
Social Risk Index 2021

Social Risk Index: Leave the door open for development

Advanced Economies are generally less vulnerable to systemic social risk than Emerging Markets, and the gap between the two has widened during the pandemic.

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Euler Hermes Global Trade Report 2021
Euler Hermes Global Trade Report 2021

Global Trade Report – Battling out of supply-chain disruptions

When it comes to inputs from China, Europe is on the weak side of the tug-of-war against the US.

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ECB and Fed December meetings
ECB and Fed December meetings

Monetary policy: Omicron management & beyond

In their December policy meetings, the US Federal Reserve and the ECB will be tested on their monetary policy stance amid signs of higher inflation and rising omicron-related uncertainty.

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Global FX volatility
Global FX volatility

Global FX volatility: still waters run deep

A China factor is increasingly present in a large set of non-CNY-denominated assets, which can create “hidden” opportunities as well as “hidden” risks.

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US retail: A not so Black Friday for consumers
US retail: A not so Black Friday for consumers

US retail: a not so black Friday for consumers

American consumers hunting for Black Friday bargains won’t find much in 2021 as supply remains tight, inventory low and discounts will apply to goods already more expensive.

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Impact of tapering on corporate credit spreads
Impact of tapering on corporate credit spreads

Corporate credit: life after policy support

Strong crisis support from central banks has triggered substantial inflows into corporate credit, keeping spreads anchored close to multi-year lows. But will a world without QE reverse the trend?

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