Global trade has bounced back stronger than expected so far in 2021, driven by input restocking and shipping constraints rather than supply-demand dynamics.
The Covid-19 crisis provides some leeway for policy support to absorb the negative impact from Brexit, but we expect UK GDP to remain -2% below pre-crisis levels at end-2022.
Global Supply Chain Survey - In search of post-Covid-19 resilience
We surveyed 1,181 companies across five countries and six sectors to gauge their experiences with disruption, and their plans to make supply chains more resilient.
Potential weekly losses of exports of goods and services to China could amount to USD26bn, with Hong Kong, the U.S., Japan, South Korea and Germany the most exposed economies.
Global trade to grow at its slowest pace in a decade and no hope for sizable improvement
Higher uncertainty and higher global tariffs are taking a toll on trade: In 2019, the volume of global trade of goods and services should grow at its slowest pace in a decade (+1.5%). As a result, exporters are likely to see USD420bn in losses this year, according to Euler Hermes’ latest Global Trade report: “Trade Wars: May the Trade Force be with you in 2020 and beyond”.
Trade Wars: May the Trade Force be with you in 2020 and beyond
A superficial “mini-deal” between the U.S. and China, a slowdown in trade in services and a busy political year in 2020 leave no hope for sizable improvement in global trade growth.
