Not so hawkish after all: Is the ECB past the peak or just on pause?
We believe that the ECB will remain in a wait-and-see mode at the March meeting as concerns about slowing growth and tighter financial conditions will outweigh inflation fears.
Public infrastructure investment: enough bang for the buck?
The recent scaling up public infrastructure investment has become an essential element of the fiscal stimulus during the recovery phase of the pandemic and promises to reverse the secular decline of capital spending.
Social Risk Index: Leave the door open for development
Advanced Economies are generally less vulnerable to systemic social risk than Emerging Markets, and the gap between the two has widened during the pandemic.
In their December policy meetings, the US Federal Reserve and the ECB will be tested on their monetary policy stance amid signs of higher inflation and rising omicron-related uncertainty.
Strong crisis support from central banks has triggered substantial inflows into corporate credit, keeping spreads anchored close to multi-year lows. But will a world without QE reverse the trend?
Despite the roaring return of inflation in H2 2021, don’t expect any major announcements from the ECB next week. The September meeting will, however, set the course for its policy stance for the remainder of 2021 and beyond.
