The Euler Hermes Export Forecast takes into account a wide range of data relevant to the Swiss export industry. Leading indicators of industry, transport, financial and commodity markets as well as new sentiment indicators are taken into account. Around 100 components flow into a dynamic, predictive model in which data series with a stronger lead are weighted higher. The Euler Hermes Export Forecast has a lead time of up to six months compared to the actual exports of the Swiss export industry.
The Euler Hermes Export Forecast stands at 0.69 points in February 2022 (November 2021: 0.95 points). Above-average export growth can therefore be expected once again over the next six months. In the highly developed industrial countries, economic growth is expected to remain strong this year at 3.9% in real terms. The emerging markets will grow by 4.7% this year, only 0.8 percentage points more than the traditional industrialised countries.
The Euler Hermes Export Forecast stands at 0.95 points in November (August 2021: 1.85 points). Accordingly, further double-digit export growth can be expected in the coming half year. The outlook for Europe has improved significantly over the past three months, while the forecasts for the US have been revised downwards. The outlook for the emerging markets remains stable.
The Euler Hermes Export Forecast stands at 1.85 points. Although this figure is 1.4 points lower than three months ago, the indicator remains at a level that was last achieved in the recovery phase after the financial crisis in 2009. The global labour markets have improved markedly in recent months, which should have a positive impact on consumption. The leading indicators for industry remain on course for a record.
The Export Forecast stands at 3.13 points – more than two points above the figure of 0.78 reported three months ago. Even if special factors are partly responsible for this exploit, a strong increase in Swiss exports can nevertheless be expected this year. While COVID-19 remains a big problem in certain service sectors, goods traffic is benefiting from intact purchasing power and the backlog of demand from private households and companies.
