Economic Insights

Jul 30, 2026

Financial Literacy Pays: Smarter Investing Goes Beyond AI

Financial literacy is an important foundation for building, protecting and growing wealth over a lifetime, but it remains the exception.

Jul 29, 2026

Cracking finance: Why the quantum threat could arrive before the reward

Most technologies create value before they create problems, but quantum computing may break that pattern.

Jul 28, 2026

Diversification: Why bonds no longer hedge equities

The 60/40 portfolio has quietly stopped working.

Jul 23, 2026

The price of political fragility in Europe

With elections ahead in France, Spain, Greece, and Italy in 2027, political risk will be at the center of European government bond markets.

Jul 22, 2026

Trade war 3.0: A new, lasting tariff wall

With Section 122's flat 10% tariff expiring on 24 July, the switch to Section 301 and Section 338 tariffs will send the US average import tariff back above 2025's IEEPA-era level to 12.4%, up from a May low of 7.7%.

Jul 16, 2026

Cash at risk: Inventories are driving a new cycle of working capital strain

Days Inventory Outstanding now explains almost 80% of the CCC level and more than 80% of its change over 2014-2025.

Jul 15, 2026

Super El Niño risk: more inflation in Asia, oversupply in Latin America yet little disruption in financial markets

The emerging 2026-27 El Niño has the potential to become the strongest climate event in more than a decade.

Jul 09, 2026

Europe under water: The macroeconomic cost of flooding and the economic case for adaptation

Flood losses are rising rapidly as economic activity continues to concentrate in high-risk areas.

Jul 08, 2026

Half-Time Outlook 2026-27: AI holds the score, growth slows to +2.5%

As the Middle East conflict de-escalates, we expect only a temporary slowdown in global growth in 2026 to +2.5%.