Economic Insights

Jul 23, 2026

The price of political fragility in Europe

With elections ahead in France, Spain, Greece, and Italy in 2027, political risk will be at the center of European government bond markets.

Jul 22, 2026

Trade war 3.0: A new, lasting tariff wall

With Section 122's flat 10% tariff expiring on 24 July, the switch to Section 301 and Section 338 tariffs will send the US average import tariff back above 2025's IEEPA-era level to 12.4%, up from a May low of 7.7%.

Jul 16, 2026

Cash at risk: Inventories are driving a new cycle of working capital strain

Days Inventory Outstanding now explains almost 80% of the CCC level and more than 80% of its change over 2014-2025.

Jul 15, 2026

Super El Niño risk: more inflation in Asia, oversupply in Latin America yet little disruption in financial markets

The emerging 2026-27 El Niño has the potential to become the strongest climate event in more than a decade.

Jul 09, 2026

Europe under water: The macroeconomic cost of flooding and the economic case for adaptation

Flood losses are rising rapidly as economic activity continues to concentrate in high-risk areas.

Jul 08, 2026

Half-Time Outlook 2026-27: AI holds the score, growth slows to +2.5%

As the Middle East conflict de-escalates, we expect only a temporary slowdown in global growth in 2026 to +2.5%.

Jul 02, 2026

Credit risk relocated, not removed: Newton’s cradle transmitting risk across BBB, HY, and private credit

US credit looks calm on the surface – spreads tight, headline growth cheerful – but the risk has simply migrated.

Jul 01, 2026

Low earth, high stakes: The LEO satellite race between AI demand and geopolitical fragmentation

SpaceX’s record-breaking IPO puts a public price on a conviction private investors already hold: space is a durable investment vertical, not a passing cycle.

Jun 30, 2026

Code, carbon, kilowatts: AI’s hidden toll and the race to green the grid

Data-center investment reached USD580bn in 2025, putting AI on track to become one of the world‘s fastest-growing sources of electricity demand.