Economic Insights

Jul 22, 2026

Trade war 3.0: A new, lasting tariff wall

With Section 122's flat 10% tariff expiring on 24 July, the switch to Section 301 and Section 338 tariffs will send the US average import tariff back above 2025's IEEPA-era level to 12.4%, up from a May low of 7.7%.

Jul 16, 2026

Cash at risk: Inventories are driving a new cycle of working capital strain

Days Inventory Outstanding now explains almost 80% of the CCC level and more than 80% of its change over 2014-2025.

Jul 15, 2026

Super El Niño risk: more inflation in Asia, oversupply in Latin America yet little disruption in financial markets

The emerging 2026-27 El Niño has the potential to become the strongest climate event in more than a decade.

Jul 09, 2026

Europe under water: The macroeconomic cost of flooding and the economic case for adaptation

Flood losses are rising rapidly as economic activity continues to concentrate in high-risk areas.

Jul 08, 2026

Half-Time Outlook 2026-27: AI holds the score, growth slows to +2.5%

As the Middle East conflict de-escalates, we expect only a temporary slowdown in global growth in 2026 to +2.5%.

Jul 02, 2026

Credit risk relocated, not removed: Newton’s cradle transmitting risk across BBB, HY, and private credit

US credit looks calm on the surface – spreads tight, headline growth cheerful – but the risk has simply migrated.

Jul 01, 2026

Low earth, high stakes: The LEO satellite race between AI demand and geopolitical fragmentation

SpaceX’s record-breaking IPO puts a public price on a conviction private investors already hold: space is a durable investment vertical, not a passing cycle.

Jun 30, 2026

Code, carbon, kilowatts: AI’s hidden toll and the race to green the grid

Data-center investment reached USD580bn in 2025, putting AI on track to become one of the world‘s fastest-growing sources of electricity demand.

Jun 25, 2026

Pension Reform Survey 2026: Everyone knows reform is needed, few expect it to happen

Citizens recognize the need for social security reforms, but have far less confidence that reforms will actually be delivered.