Economic Insights

Nov 15, 2024

What to Watch 15 November 2024

The cost of uncertainty in Germany, the finishing touch of the Chinese stimulus and all eyes on Brazil while this COP is in Baku

Nov 14, 2024

The geoeconomic playbook of global trade

A renewed but contained trade war could cost global trade growth 0.6pp in 2026, while a full-blown trade war would cost up to 2.4pps.

Nov 07, 2024

What to Watch 07 November 2024

President Trump’s victory at the US elections and the likely full Republican control of the Congress do not change our forecasts for US GDP much, with fiscal loosening likely to broadly offset growth-negative factors

Oct 31, 2024

What to watch 31 October 2024

Fed taking it slow, UK budget done, diverging growth in the Eurozone and market volatility before and after the US elections

Oct 24, 2024

What to Watch 24 October 2024

From agreement to action at COP16 in Cali, nuclear energy and the race to net zero and the “Big Stay” in Eurozone labor markets

Oct 22, 2024

Breaking or laying bricks? How policymakers will shape the construction recovery

Despite major headwinds, the residential construction segment has remained resilient and lower interest rates could revive prices and activity in 2025