Social Risk Index: Leave the door open for development
Advanced Economies are generally less vulnerable to systemic social risk than Emerging Markets, and the gap between the two has widened during the pandemic.
China’s great crunch: causes and consequences, at home and abroad
A mix of temporary and self-inflicted factors has sparked a sudden slowdown in China, which we expect to continue through Q4 2021 and the beginning of next year.
G7 corporate tax deal: Who is winning, who is losing?
The ensuing competitiveness shock will benefit the economies of Poland, Spain, China, the Netherlands, the US and the UK at the expense of Emerging Markets.
As 2020 draws to a close and we release our updated forecasts, our economists were caught day dreaming of a world where their boldest wishes would come true.
The Covid-19 vaccine will supercharge global growth in 2021, but short-term headwinds, and a complete recovery only by 2022, will create transition risks.
Emerging markets: heading for a china-less recovery?
Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Ecuador and Ghana, along with Brazil and South Africa, could struggle to find alternative international sources for funding, investment and trade to sustain their economic growth.