Export dependency causes cyclical growth. GDP growth will remain solid in 2013-2014. Sound monetary policy. Inflation is unproblematic. Banking sector has been resilient.
Recent exchange rate volatility appears
unproblematic. Public finances do not pose any immediate
threat. Current account surplus is narrowing. External debt burden is manageable. Ample foreign exchange reserves.
A China factor is increasingly present in a large set of non-CNY-denominated assets, which can create “hidden” opportunities as well as “hidden” risks.
The irony of Biden’s super stimulus: USD360bn for exporters around the world
President Biden’s USD1.9tn stimulus is set to create a positive confidence effect on US domestic demand, part of which will be absorbed by exporters across the world.
As 2020 draws to a close and we release our updated forecasts, our economists were caught day dreaming of a world where their boldest wishes would come true.
The Covid-19 vaccine will supercharge global growth in 2021, but short-term headwinds, and a complete recovery only by 2022, will create transition risks.
The dual circulation strategy is likely to take center stage in China’s 14th five-year plan as a way towards more sustainable growth, making the country less reliant on factors outside of its control.