Social Risk Index: Leave the door open for development
Advanced Economies are generally less vulnerable to systemic social risk than Emerging Markets, and the gap between the two has widened during the pandemic.
The middle-income trap: inequality across countries after Covid-19
In 2020, Covid-19 narrowed the prosperity gap between rich and poor countries as the former were at first the most affected. But over the medium and long run, its consequences could hit emerging markets harder.
Liquidity matters: Corporates may need half a trillion of additional working capital requirement financing in 2021
Large companies will face a record increase in WCR in a context of a strong demand rebound triggered by the grand reopening, alongside severe shortages in inputs, labor and final goods.
Abolishing fuel subsidies in a green and just transition
Abolishing fossil fuel subsidies and directing the funds to renewable energy seems like an easy win for the climate. But getting rid of them comes with steep costs for consumers, particularly the poorest households.
As 2020 draws to a close and we release our updated forecasts, our economists were caught day dreaming of a world where their boldest wishes would come true.
The Covid-19 vaccine will supercharge global growth in 2021, but short-term headwinds, and a complete recovery only by 2022, will create transition risks.