Economic insights

Jul 16, 2020

Calm before the storm: Covid-19 and the business insolvency time bomb

The Covid-19 shock will trigger a worldwide wave of business insolvencies

Jul 16, 2020

European banks: Could EUR300bn of additional NPLs crunch the recovery in Europe?

Unprecedented policy support may not be enough to shield European banks from the real economy’s woes.

Jul 15, 2020

Covid-19: Contagion risks also apply to markets

Increased tail co-movements between asset classes indicate the presence of a common risk factor.

Jul 09, 2020

Coping with Covid-19 in differing ways

The light and targeted lockdowns to fight the second wave of Covid-19 infections will constrain the pace of recovery. We expect global GDP to contract by -4.7% in 2020, followed by growth of +4.8% in 2021.

Jul 08, 2020

Brexit: Trade tricks won't be enough

According to our calculations, the aggressive trade policy pursued by the UK could lead to a +2.2% increase in import prices over a year, and be negative for competitiveness abroad