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TURKEY
Will the shift to orthodox monetary policies last this time?
SENSITIVE RISK for enterprise
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Economic risk
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Business environment risk
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Political risk
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Commercial risk
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Financing risk
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Economic risk
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Business environment risk
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Political risk
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Commercial risk
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Financing risk
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GDP | USD761,426bn (World ranking 19, World Bank 2019) |
Population | 82.43mn (World ranking 17, World Bank 2019) |
Form of state | Republican Parliamentary Democracy |
Head of government | Recep Tayyip ERDOGAN (President) |
Next elections | 2023, presidential and legislative |
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- Important geostrategic position (that has historically always ensured aid when needed)
- Adequate business environment (though deteriorating)
- Potential as regional hub between Europe, MENA and Asia
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- Exchange rate vulnerability to domestic and external shocks
- Economic policy responsiveness
- History of persistently large current account deficits, largely financed through short-term external debt, which has risen to a very high level in the meantime
- (External) debt refinancing risk of weaker companies and banks, exacerbated by the currency crisis in 2018-2019 and again by the Covid-19 crisis in 2020
- Deep-rooted division in society between secularists and religious conservatives
- Geopolitical risks
Trade structure by destination/origin
(% of total)
Exports | Rank | Imports |
---|---|---|
Germany
9%
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1 |
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United Kingdom
7%
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2 |
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Iraq
6%
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3 |
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Italy
5%
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4 |
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United States
4%
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4 |
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Trade structure by product
(% of total)
Exports | Rank | Imports |
---|---|---|
Road vehicles
14%
|
1 |
9%
Road vehicles
|
Articles of apparel & clothing accessories
11%
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2 |
6%
Electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, n.e.s.
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Textile yarn and related products
8%
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3 |
5%
Other industrial machinery and parts
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Electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, n.e.s.
6%
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4 |
5%
Iron and steel
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Gold, non-monetary (excluding gold ores and concentrates)
6%
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5 |
4%
Plastics in primary forms
|
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Low
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Medium
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Sensitive
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High
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Payments
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Court proceedings
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Insolvency proceedings
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Payments
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Court proceedings
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Insolvency proceedings
Domestic courts lack independence, the rule of law perception is moderate, and the chances of obtaining payment through legal action are lower than through strong pre-legal negotiation efforts.
Debt renegotiation proceedings before the courts are not generalized and when it comes to insolvency issues, liquidation remains the default proceeding even though liquidation sales rarely yield efficient results and may not be in the creditors’ best interest.
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22 March
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Economic Outlook: Energy, trade and financial shockwaves
18 March
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought back significant headwinds to the global economic recovery and raised wider geopolitical risks.
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