The global economy remains surprisingly resilient for the time being. However, behind the solid growth figures lie increasing tensions, structural vulnerabilities, and new risks. According to our experts, 2026 and 2027 will be years in which financial leaders will need to stretch their limits without losing control.
Navigating through a changing economic landscape
Global growth is holding steady, but for how long?
Global GDP growth remains strong: +2.9% in 2026 and +2.8% in 2027, following a robust +3% in 2025. This resilience is primarily due to a strong 2025 in the US and China, and the ability of companies to quickly adapt to trade disruptions.
Johan Geeroms, our Risk Underwriting Director Benelux, says: "However, this is not a classic growth story. We are clearly in a late economic cycle, where growth is less broadly supported and risks can escalate more quickly."
In the second half of 2025, interest rates remained stable and the decline of the dollar halted. Beneath the surface, however, there are concerns: defense stocks and gold performed well, while AI stocks underperformed. Looking ahead, we expect little change in interest rates and currencies. Stocks will rise more slowly but not fall, while AI develops at a slower pace.
"The Fed is likely to stop lowering rates faster than expected and stabilize around 3.5% due to persistent inflation and growth," says Johan Geeroms. The ECB will keep rates around 2.0%, but there are risks that they could fall. In the US, the easing of financial conditions through the One Big Beautiful Bill helps stimulate the economy, while Europe faces fiscal challenges. France struggles to reduce spending, leading to high deficits, and Germany will also have a large fiscal deficit, the highest in years outside the pandemic.
United States
The American economy is increasingly operating at two speeds. The impact of the trade war has been milder than expected, thanks to reduced tariffs and strategic trade deals. The information and communication sector, including AI, has made a significant contribution to GDP growth. For 2026, we forecast growth of +2.5%, driven by a more resilient consumer and the positive impact of AI.
China
Despite the trade war, China's export growth remains a leader, driven by strong external demand and strategic rerouting to circumvent tariffs. However, domestic demand continues to struggle to recover sustainably, with further policy support needed. Price pressures remain low due to this context and overcapacity in many sectors.
Europe: Moderate growth under structural pressure
The eurozone remains on a moderate growth path. Our experts forecast +1.1% growth for 2026, following +1.4% in 2025. Germany expects growth of +0.9% in 2026, marking a strong recovery after years of stagnation, while France will see GDP growth of +1.1% despite political challenges.
Trade and supply chains: resilience pays off
Global trade surprised positively. Companies have massively focused on:
- Rerouting trade flows
- Diversifying suppliers
- Mitigating tariff risks
As a result, growth prospects for global trade have been significantly revised upwards.
Tips for financial leaders
Caution is advised when investing, especially in underperforming sectors like AI, and attention should be given to strong sectors such as defense and gold. It is important to consider potential changes in interest rates and fiscal policy and to adjust strategies accordingly. Johan Geeroms advises: "Stay focused on long-term returns and be prepared for economic changes that may impact your financial planning."
Companies that proactively diversify risks in their supply chains not only protect operational continuity but also their balance sheets.
Companies continue to invest, but insolvency risks are increasing
Globally, companies are showing resilience with strong profit growth in the US, a European revival in tech and pharma, and AI investments reaching USD 571 billion.
At the same time, our experts anticipate that insolvencies will increase by +3% in 2026, particularly in the US and Europe. Refinancing is becoming more expensive, and not every business model can withstand this pressure.
"Strong fundamentals are no longer a guarantee. Credit risk and payment behavior deserve extra attention, even with seemingly healthy clients," says Johan Geeroms.
The key risks heading into 2026-2027
- Our experts identify three structural downside risks:
- Institutional: Protectionism, elections, pressure on central banks
- Geopolitical: Fragmentation, conflicts, trade restrictions
- Financial: Corrections in AI stocks, private credit stress, rising public debts
- Together, these factors increasingly pressure the limits of this late economic cycle.
What does this mean for you as a financial leader?
- For companies in Benelux, this means:
- A stable but vulnerable demand.
- Pressure on margins due to higher financing costs.
- Increasing importance of selective customer management.
- Focus not only on revenue growth but also on the sustainability of cash flows, margins, and credit risks.
Tip: "Review your credit terms by sector and market, especially for customers dependent on exports or cyclical investments," says Johan Geeroms.
Where our solutions make a difference
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Preparing your organization for economic challenges
In this economic climate, forward-thinking financial leaders make a difference by:
- Actively managing debtor and credit risk
- Increasing transparency in the supply chain
- Timely detecting signs of financial stress among customers
Our experts closely monitor these developments and assist you in translating economic signals into concrete financial decisions.