Last Friday, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revised last year’s nominal GDP up by 2.1%, to RMB91.93tn (USD13.08tn). According to the NBS, the increase was mostly explained by the services sector, and should not significantly influence the calculation for the 2019 growth rate. It’s not unusual for GDP numbers to be revised (in any country). That said, the timing of this upwards revision may be interesting. Indeed, it may relieve a little the pressure on the policy mix in the coming year to aggressively support growth. As a reminder, in 2012 the Chinese leadership announced the economy should double in size between 2010 and 2020. Assuming an upwards revision to 2018 real GDP will follow and our forecast of +6.2% for 2019 real growth, China will need to grow by around +6.0% in 2020 (vs. around +6.2% previously). This should allow authorities to continue easing the policy mix in a measured way. Euler Hermes expects China’s GDP to grow by +6.1% in 2020, with downside risks outweighing upside ones.
