Ecuador faces significant downside risks due to constrained export and fiscal revenues due to lower crude oil prices (oil accounts for around 30% of government revenues). The appreciation of the USD has negatively affected export competitiveness, especially with neighbors (Colombia and Peru). Euler Hermes expects a recession of -2.3% in 2016, after meager growth of +0.3% in 2015.
ecuador-country-report-dec16.pdf