Iran: Weak international relations (including sanctions) constrain economic and market potential
GDP growth is dependent on international oil markets and on sanctions Former policies (with a lingering legacy) limit economic development. Significant inflationary pressures, reflecting fiscal largesse and IRR depreciation.
External accounts are strong but earning capacity is below potential. External debt levels and servicing of obligations are comfortable
Social Risk Index: Leave the door open for development
Advanced Economies are generally less vulnerable to systemic social risk than Emerging Markets, and the gap between the two has widened during the pandemic.
Abolishing fuel subsidies in a green and just transition
Abolishing fossil fuel subsidies and directing the funds to renewable energy seems like an easy win for the climate. But getting rid of them comes with steep costs for consumers, particularly the poorest households.
As 2020 draws to a close and we release our updated forecasts, our economists were caught day dreaming of a world where their boldest wishes would come true.
The Covid-19 vaccine will supercharge global growth in 2021, but short-term headwinds, and a complete recovery only by 2022, will create transition risks.
Impact underwriting: sustainable insurance as an opportunity for society and business
Due to its role as risk manager, risk carrier and major investor, the insurance industry is in a unique position to promote economic, social and environmental sustainability.
The light and targeted lockdowns to fight the second wave of Covid-19 infections will constrain the pace of recovery. We expect global GDP to contract by -4.7% in 2020, followed by growth of +4.8% in 2021.