Cameroon:CFA franc zone offers support and relative stability
Over a long-term perspective, the rate of economic growth in Cameroon has been below the average for Africa. This is partly a result of the long-term decline in oil output, although expansion in the non-oil sector
enabled GDP to grow by over +4% in 2011 and 2012.
Within an overall programme of economic diversification away from oil, the construction (mainly through infrastructure projects) and agriculture and forestry sectors are being promoted.
Social Risk Index: Leave the door open for development
Advanced Economies are generally less vulnerable to systemic social risk than Emerging Markets, and the gap between the two has widened during the pandemic.
As 2020 draws to a close and we release our updated forecasts, our economists were caught day dreaming of a world where their boldest wishes would come true.
The Covid-19 vaccine will supercharge global growth in 2021, but short-term headwinds, and a complete recovery only by 2022, will create transition risks.
EU carbon border adjustments and developing country exports: saving the worst for the last
The introduction of an EU carbon border adjustment mechanism will come with a high cost for African trade partners and the Arab states of the Persian gulf.
Impact underwriting: sustainable insurance as an opportunity for society and business
Due to its role as risk manager, risk carrier and major investor, the insurance industry is in a unique position to promote economic, social and environmental sustainability.
The light and targeted lockdowns to fight the second wave of Covid-19 infections will constrain the pace of recovery. We expect global GDP to contract by -4.7% in 2020, followed by growth of +4.8% in 2021.
Social Risk Index: Structural determinants of social risk
As the Covid-19 pandemic pushes the global economy into the worst recession since WWII, systemic social risk could become a more important factor of political risk and worsen the business climate in some countries.
CFA Franc turning 75: Central African countries under pressure
In 2020, the CFA Franc is turning 75 years old. Yet, divergence among members of the common currency arrangement calls for cautious optimism about its stability.