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Economic Insights

May 13, 2020

UK: Brexit uncertainty could jeopardize the recovery in H2 2020

A longer transition would be needed, at least until mid-2021.
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May 08, 2020

Pensions: Corona reveals need for further pension reforms in Germany

Due to short-time work and rising unemployment, a shortfall of at least EUR 8bn looms.
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May 06, 2020

Global trade: Covid-19 losses equivalent to a return to 1994 tariffs

Global trade could remain below 90% of its pre-crisis level even after lockdowns are lifted.
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May 05, 2020

Emerging markets: Capital outflows bottomed out but beware of the weak spots

Capital outflows could increase again should renewed trade tensions continue.
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Apr 30, 2020

Eurozone: Black hole economics

The Covid-19 crisis has hit the Eurozone economy like a meteorite.
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Apr 30, 2020

ECB: Show and tell

The ECB will soon be forced to pull another trick out of its hat to impress markets and calm growing debt sustainability concerns.
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Apr 24, 2020

Retail in Germany: A very slow exit from lockdown

The five-week closure of non-essential stores could have cost German retailers as much as EUR26bn in turnover.
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Apr 23, 2020

Reopening the world: Beware of false starts

Managing the reproduction rate of the virus effectively will mean most economies will function at 70% to 80% of their potential for two-three quarters.
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Apr 22, 2020

Europe should unlock excess savings from Covid-19 response

In turbulent times, households become more risk-averse and may shy away from consuming or investing.
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