Updated on 10 March 2026
Winners vs. Losers: Which Sectors Are Vulnerable in 2026?
Q: With the economy growing, are insolvency risks disappearing?
A: Not exactly. While the rate of increase is slowing, the absolute number of insolvencies remains historically high. We expect global insolvencies to rise by +3% in 2026, following a sharp +6% increase in 2025. This is the fifth consecutive year of rising business failures.
Q: Which sectors are safest, and which are at risk?
A: We are seeing a massive "Capex Divergence" (Capital Expenditure Split), clearly illustrated in Figure 8 of our report.
- The Strong Investors: The Technology and Utilities sectors are aggressively reinvesting profits (up to 20% of cash), driven by the AI boom and energy transition needs.
- The Underinvestors: The Automotive and Energy sectors are lagging. The auto industry, in particular, is squeezed by the EV transition costs, Chinese competition, and high interest rates, leading to defensive cash preservation rather than growth investment.
Figure 8: The "Capex Divergence" – Tech and Utilities (top right) are aggressively reinvesting, while Automotive and Energy (bottom left) lag behind.
Q: Will interest rates come down enough to help?
A: Central banks are diverging. The US Fed is expected to cut rates to 3.5%, while the ECB holds around 2.0%. However, "cheap money" is not returning. Financing costs will remain higher than pre-pandemic levels, putting pressure on debt-heavy SMEs.
Is your customer base in a "Strong Investor" or "Underinvestor" sector?
Protect your cash flow by understanding who is at risk.
Download the report to access the full Sector Reinvestment Matrix.
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