Updated on 10 March 2026
Trade Resilience: How the Global Economy is Dodging the Tariff Bullet
Despite trade wars, tariffs, and geopolitical rifts, global trade is surprisingly alive.
Many predicted that 2025-26 would mark the end of globalization. The data tells a different story. Our latest Economic Outlook reveals that global trade volume is set to grow by +3.5% in 2025 and +1.3% in 2026.
The Data Behind the Resilience
Figure 2: Global trade remains resilient with a forecasted +3.5% growth in 2025, driven by supply chain rerouting and service sector strength.
How is trade growing when tariffs are rising? The answer lies in mitigation strategies.
- Rerouting & Diversification: Companies have aggressively rerouted supply chains through "connector" economies like Vietnam, Mexico, and India. This has blunted the immediate impact of US-China tariffs.
- The AI Boost: The demand for AI infrastructure (chips, servers, energy components) is creating a new layer of high-value trade that transcends traditional barriers.
- Service Sector Strength: Trade in services (software, IP, finance) continues to outperform trade in goods.
The "Catch-Up" Risk for Exporters
While the aggregate numbers are positive, the risks are shifting. Asia-Pacific and North America are expected to face decelerations through 2026. Conversely, Europe is showing resilience.
What this means for your supply chain:
The "frictionless" era of trade is over. Inventory management and knowing your buyer's location are no longer enough—you need to understand the route your goods take and the tariffs they might incur along the way.
Get the full breakdown of trade risks by region.
Read the full analysis in our Economic Outlook 2026-27.
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