Economic & Trade Risk Insights

The global economy is defying gravity, but for how long? The global business landscape enters 2026 with surprising resilience. According to Allianz Research’s latest report, global GDP growth is expected to reach +2.9% in 2026, following a robust +3% in 2025. This upward revision defies earlier fears of a recession, driven largely by the momentum in the US and China.

Despite trade wars, tariffs, and geopolitical rifts, global trade is surprisingly alive. Many predicted that 2025-26 would mark the end of globalization. The data tells a different story. Our latest Economic Outlook reveals that global trade volume is set to grow by +3.5% in 2025 and +1.3% in 2026.

With the economy growing, are insolvency risks disappearing? Not exactly. While the rate of increase is slowing, the absolute number of insolvencies remains historically high. We expect global insolvencies to rise by +3% in 2026, following a sharp +6% increase in 2025. This is the fifth consecutive year of rising business failures.