UK Risk Barometer 2026:
Technology, geopolitics and economic risks are top concerns

Cyber remains the biggest worry for companies in 2026, both in the UK and globally, reflecting the high cost and disruption caused by ransomware attacks, data breaches and major outages in recent years. In fact, concern over cyber is rising faster among UK businesses than elsewhere: There was a 51% increase in concern about cyber risk among UK respondents (from 41% to 62%) whereas globally the number rose slightly from 38% to 42%.

A cyber incident at a major UK manufacturer in 2025 is estimated to have cost as much as £2.1bn while attacks against two UK retailers earlier in the year caused estimated losses of up to £440mn ($585mn), according to the Cyber Monitoring Centre.

Closely related to cyber is the accelerated adoption of AI, the biggest riser in the 2026 survey, which is now ranked second by businesses in the UK and globally. Again, concern for AI is rising faster among UK businesses than elsewhere: concern around AI risk in the UK rose from 22% in 2025 to 51% in 2026 – versus a smaller leap from 10% to 32% globally. The growing risk surrounding AI is likely to have contributed to rising concern for market developments – such as intensified competition and new entrants - a new entry at eighth in the UK rankings.

As adoption of AI accelerates and becomes more deeply embedded in core business operations, respondents expect AI-related risks to intensify. Almost a fifth (19%) say they see more risks than benefits from AI, while just under half of respondents (44%) believe AI is bringing more benefits to their industry than risks. AI governance and compliance is cited as the most urgent environmental, social, and governance (ESG)-related technology priority for 2026.

Following a year of growing protectionism and violent conflicts, it’s of no surprise that geopolitical risks feature prominently in the top ten risks. Political risks rank fifth in the UK (22%), and seventh globally (15%), its highest-ever overall ranking. Notably, global supply chain paralysis due to conflict ranks as the most plausible “black swan” scenario likely to materialize in the next five years (51%), according to respondents.

Geopolitical rifts are reshaping supply chains, pushing firms to build resilience. When asked how their company is addressing shifting trade and investment patterns – including the impact of tariffs – half of Allianz Risk Barometer respondents say they are exploring new markets and products, while a similar number (49%) are diversifying supply chains. Just over a third (35%) are exploring nearshoring and evaluating domestic manufacturing options, while 32% are looking to improve inventory management.

Such shifts come at a cost. Companies are effectively buying an insurance policy via diversified production and slightly fuller warehouses. As a consequence, inventory has become a key buffer that firms need to manage carefully. The payoff is less vulnerability to geopolitical flare-ups but the price is a marginal hit to efficiency and potentially higher working capital needs.

Macroeconomic developments is also of growing concern for UK businesses in this year’s Risk Barometer, moving up one place to sixth (macroeconomic developments ranks eighth globally). Changes in legislation and regulation, which includes trade tariffs, is third (29%) in the UK, one place higher than in the global ranking (26%). Talent and labour issues are also of greater concern for UK companies, climbing one place up to ninth, compared with twelfth globally.  

Despite profound geopolitical shifts last year, the global economy has been surprisingly resilient: Following robust global GDP growth of +3% in 2025 we now expect +2.9% growth in 2026, a +0.4pp upward revision in our forecast. This resilience, however, masks a deeper story of shifting growth engines and rising complexity, according to Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran.

Global business insolvencies are expected to reach a new height in 2026 (insolvencies climbed one place in this year’s Barometer to fifteenth) as corporate resilience is tested by relatively weak economic growth, tight financing conditions and a changing political and competitive landscape.

As mitigation strategies wear thin and secondary effects kick in, the effects of tariffs could soon weigh on companies’ outlooks. In addition, the proliferation of new businesses fuelled by the digital transition and the rise of artificial intelligence – also increases the insolvency risks as innovation replaces old industries and with a potential abrupt end to the AI-induced boom (we estimate that a shock similar to the dotcom bubble could lead to an extra +1,100 in the UK).

All told, we forecast global business insolvencies to grow by +3% in 2026 (after +6% in 2025), driven primarily by Europe and North America. And with the increase in large insolvencies, the risks of domino effects – where a major insolvency leads to the financial distress and potential collapse of suppliers and customers throughout the interconnected supply chain - is rising.