Executive Summary

Global trade growth is expected to slow in 2025-2026 due to the ongoing trade war, with a modest increase in export volumes driven by frontloaded shipments. The U.S. Federal Reserve is anticipated to deliver its third consecutive rate cut, despite inflationary and labor market pressures, but will likely pause cuts in early 2025. In 2024, insolvencies among companies with over EUR 50 million in turnover are hitting record highs, particularly in the services, retail, and construction sectors, with the potential for further increases as economic uncertainty and restructuring continue.

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• What to watch?
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• Global Trade Slowdown: Trade growth is expected to be weak in 2025-2026, impacted by the ongoing trade war and low forecasted value increases.
• Fed Rate Cuts: The Fed is likely to deliver one more rate cut in December but may pause in 2025 due to persistent inflation and rising unemployment.
• Rising Insolvencies: 2024 is on track for a record number of major insolvencies, especially in services, retail, and construction sectors, with potential risks to suppliers.