Trade Risk Management

The global economy is defying gravity, but for how long? The global business landscape enters 2026 with surprising resilience. According to Allianz Research’s latest report, global GDP growth is expected to reach +2.9% in 2026, following a robust +3% in 2025. This upward revision defies earlier fears of a recession, driven largely by the momentum in the US and China.

Despite trade wars, tariffs, and geopolitical rifts, global trade is surprisingly alive. Many predicted that 2025-26 would mark the end of globalization. The data tells a different story. Our latest Economic Outlook reveals that global trade volume is set to grow by +3.5% in 2025 and +1.3% in 2026.

With the economy growing, are insolvency risks disappearing? Not exactly. While the rate of increase is slowing, the absolute number of insolvencies remains historically high. We expect global insolvencies to rise by +3% in 2026, following a sharp +6% increase in 2025. This is the fifth consecutive year of rising business failures.

Learn how Allianz Trade's credit insurance helps businesses achieve sustainable growth by ensuring predictable payments and managing buyer risks.

The global business environment faces a prolonged period of elevated risk. Allianz Research expects global business insolvencies to rise by +6% in 2025, and again by +5% in 2026, before a modest decline in 2027. This marks the fifth consecutive year of increases, pushing global bankruptcies +24% above the pre-pandemic average. This sustained surge is driven primarily by North America and Asia, underscoring the necessity for robust credit risk management.

The global rise in business insolvencies is not just a cyclical correction; it’s driven by structural challenges that will keep failure rates high through 2026. Despite Western Europe showing a modest decrease in 2026, the overall global index is set to rise again by +5%. This FAQ addresses the three critical structural factors that businesses must manage to survive the prolonged economic headwinds.

The trade war initiated by the Trump administration's sweeping import duties (an effective rate of 11% by August 2025 ) has reshaped global trade flows without yet triggering the mass insolvency wave many feared in the US. However, the reprieve is temporary, and the risk has simply been delayed, not dodged. This deep dive explores the mechanism that shielded the US and reveals the significant financial burden now shifting to export-driven economies, particularly in Europe.

The APAC chemicals sector is undergoing significant transformation, presenting both massive growth opportunities and critical operational challenges. Based on our latest analysis, we've compiled the most important questions for businesses operating in or trading with this dynamic region.