Benelux remains stable despite global uncertainty

The global economy will continue to grow moderately in the years ahead. We forecast average growth of 2.8% in 2025 and 2026. This is shown in our recent World Economic Outlook 2025-2026. While Western economies experience a slight slowdown, emerging markets will continue to grow vigorously.

For the Eurozone, we forecast weak growth of 1.2% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. This growth is partly due to lower interest rates and increased consumption. Countries such as Spain and Ireland lead the way with significantly higher growth rates. Germany, on the other hand, will post only minimal growth after two years of recession.

This article contains:

Key insights

Global growth of 2.8% in 2025-2026, with a slowdown in advanced economies and strong growth in emerging markets.
Trade and political tensions, particularly in the United States and the eurozone, are weighing on global economic stability.
The number of bankruptcies continues to rise, by +2% in 2025, and companies are facing more payment delays, and the risk of non-payment continues to rise.

Increased political risk

Many countries held elections last year (including the USA, India, the UK and several EU member states). Collectively, the countries where elections were held account for almost half of the world's gross domestic product (GDP). This means that political changes can have a significant impact on the global economy. Trump's comeback is a case in point. The changes in America alone can have a significant impact on a global scale.

The US position towards Russia, China and the Middle East will have a direct impact on global stability.
Significant immigration restrictions in the US could weigh on labor markets and increase inflationary pressures.
In the Middle East, America's tougher stance on Iran could slow growth and push up oil prices.
We estimate that there is a 45% probability that Trump will start a global trade war.

Slowdown of US economy

The US economy is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2025 (versus 2.8% in 2024), with a further slowdown to 1.8% in 2026. Much will depend on the impact of the Trump administration's economic policies. Initially, Trump will introduce 25% tariffs on imports of Chinese products. And for imports from the rest of the world, 5%.

This has important consequences for global economic growth, but also for the US economy itself. Especially if the trade conflict subsequently escalates. Tariffs on Chinese imports could then rise to 60%, and those on European imports to 10%.

Logically, China and the EU will take countermeasures. This could result in a significant increase in the cost of importing raw materials and products for US companies (US imports are much larger than US exports). In addition, a trade war will lead to higher prices for US exports, damaging competitiveness. Rising U.S. tariffs drive up U.S. inflation and undermine economic growth. This jeopardizes the expected interest rate cuts.

A step back for China

China's growth is set to slow from 4.6% in 2025 to 4.2% in 2026. This is mainly due to the transition to a more consumer-oriented economy. External trade pressures are also weighing on the economy. We expect India to maintain strong growth of 6.4% in 2025 and 2026, driven mainly by domestic consumption and investment.

Risks in Eurozone

For the Eurozone, our researchers highlight the political instability in Germany and France. This will undoubtedly have a negative impact on the eurozone's economic outlook. What's more, the reintroduction of European fiscal rules could lead to austerity in several countries, putting the brakes on economic growth.

Investment opportunities and risks

In our view, the investment outlook for 2025 and 2026 is characterized by a mixture of optimism and vigilance. We assume that global equity prices will continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace than in 2024. We believe that the US equity market will remain in the lead, although investors will need to remain vigilant due to high valuations.

European equity markets should offer more modest returns, although they also present opportunities due to lower valuations. Investors will focus on companies with solid fundamentals that can withstand an uncertain economic environment.

Bond markets should remain stable, with yields falling slightly in 2025. We expect interest rate differentials between the US and Europe to narrow, which could lead to a slight appreciation of the euro against the dollar.

Falling inflation

Eurozone inflation should hover around 2% (the ECB's target) in 2025. The United States will not reach this low level. The Trump administration's measures (such as the aforementioned tariff hikes, strict immigration policy, lax financial conditions and tax cuts) are effectively chasing inflation. As a result, inflation will remain around 3%.

Uncertainty for companies

Despite political changes and geopolitical risks, we expect sectors such as AI and technology to continue to grow. Investment in infrastructure and sustainable sectors will also increase.

On a global level, the number of business bankruptcies will continue to rise, with +2% in 2025, and will stabilize at a still high level in 2026. National and international companies are facing more payment delays, and the risk of non-payment continues to rise.

Faced with economic, political and commercial uncertainty, you should take extra measures to protect your business. In the future, for example, one of your major customers could encounter financial difficulties and be unable to pay your invoices.

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Protect your business with a trade credit insurance

In time of uncertainty, you can never be sure that one of your customers won't default or go bankrupt. Quite often, these risks have a snowball effect. This puts your company's cash flow and profitability at risk. A large unpaid invoice can jeopardize your company's growth, or even bankrupt you.

A trade credit insurance protects your cash flow and significantly reduces the damage caused by credit risks to your own business by indemnifying you in the event of unpaid invoices. We not only help you avoid unpaid invoices and compensate you if they occur, but also offer additional risk-related services as part of trade credit insurance coverage, such as:

Invoice collection, regardless of the country or jurisdiction in which your customers operate.
Predictive protection that helps you choose the right customers and markets, thanks to in-depth financial analysis.
Market expertise, giving you a 360-degree view of business sectors and impending issues.

Learn more about trade credit insurance

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Jan 14, 2025

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